Dipsea Capital Fund LP
September 2017 Commentary:
The Dipsea Capital Fund returned 0.33% to clients for the month of August, its 14th consecutive, positive month. Year to date, the fund is up 5.99% after fees and the trailing 12-month return is 8.24%.
It was a quiet month, yet many intriguing sightings took place which one doesn’t typically witness in September. First, it was the least volatile September ever. According to the Wall Street Journal, the SP500 index’s average daily range was approximately 0.4%. The VIX volatility index, often referred to as the “fear gauge”, confirmed the complete lack of investor concern about the market by making a new all-time low.
Historically, September is a difficult month for the markets, yet most indexes rose strongly for the period. In addition, the other seasonal tendency referenced by the maxim, “Sell in May and go away”, would have disappointed any investors who embraced that pattern.
Although seasonal tendencies have been fickle this year, if one embraces them in forecasting price action for the 4th quarter, a positive expectancy of stable to higher prices is forecast. This analysis is supported by historical studies where a record high is achieved in September in the broad indexes, and the market is up at least 10% year to date.
It’s problematic, if not impossible, to forecast how far the equity markets can go. As John Maynard Keynes said, “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” What we aspire to do at Dipsea is to forecast price action in the near term. Beyond our short horizon, our focus is to remain rational. As Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet’s partner at Berkshire Hathaway states, “A lot of other people are trying to be brilliant, and we’re just trying to stay rational”.
We see our fund as offering investors an opportunity to remain rational in an environment where historical patterns are clearly different. Our orientation remains to deliver our partners consistent returns, uncorrelated to market direction in any market environment.
Ray Dalio, the President of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, preaches the merits behind reducing portfolio risk by having uncorrelated return streams. Before, we officially launched the Dipsea Fund, our managed accounts profited from increased volatility during market distress. This is a prime example how our lack of correlation can potentially benefit our investors. Similarly, our returns are not subject to the “interest rate risk” that fixed income products encounter.
We enjoy hearing from our clients and prospective investors, so please don’t hesitate to reach out to us with any questions.
As partners and fellow investors in Dipsea Capital LP, thank you for the trust you place in us as a steward of your capital.